Customer Analytics, Unit Economics, SAAS, Subscriptions and Forecasting

Moats: “From Competitive advantage (Moats: Tech, scale,etc) flows good unit economics”- Josh Wolfe
Michael Mauboussin Measuring the Moat – csinvesting
Network Effects by a16z

Good collection of links from: http://www.fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/the-value-of-lasting-moats

Morningstar’s What Makes a Moat?

Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s interview with Pat Dorsey, who focuses his investment firm on wide moat companies:

Pat Dorsey’s presentation on moats, Moats and Macro

Ensemble Capital’s The Death (of Many) Brands

Buffett on Economic Moats – Alpha Architect

Capital Allocation and Governance:
Mauboussin: Capital Allocation
Outsiders: Will Thorndike Interview
Tren Griffin on Outsiders

Strategic and Intangible Assets:
https://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v73.n4.4
Why Financial Statements Don’t Work for Highly Innovative Companies
http://osam.com/Commentary/negative-equity-veiled-value-and-the-erosion-of-price-to-book
-“Our proprietary process of identifying Knowledge Leaders corrects for a 1974 accounting ruling requiring firms to expense all innovative investments in the period in which they are incurred, which has given rise to a steady deterioration in the information content found in financial statements and an actionable market mispricing anomaly. To correct for this ultra-conservative accounting stance, we identify and capitalize innovative investments R&D, brand, IT, human capital development, and organizational capital for roughly 5,000 companies across the developed and emerging markets. In order to be included in a Knowledge Leaders Index and considered for our active or passive portfolios, companies must meet a set of specific criteria, including possessing a high level of intellectual property capital, high levels of profitability and lean balance sheets, all reflective of a firm executing a successful innovation strategy.”
-https://hbr.org/2018/02/why-financial-statements-dont-work-for-digital-companies
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=35
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=372
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=10616
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=7365
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=56
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=14005
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=514
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=7355
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=593
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=120
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=128
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=121
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=14274
-http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=14137
-http://www.evergage.com/blog/how-calculate-customer-churn-and-revenue-churn/

Roic/Cfroic:
Calculating Return on Invested Capital
http://basehitinvesting.com/importance-of-roic-reinvestment-vs-legacy-moats/
http://basehitinvesting.com/calculating-the-return-on-incremental-capital-investments/

Resources:

Customer Analytics, Churn:
churn-4-types
Source: KDNuggets
-Bruce Hardie’s Talks and Tutorials
http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/20463/rfm-customer-lifetime-value-modeling-in-r
http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/13162/InTech-Data_mining_using_rfm_analysis.pdf
https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BTYD/vignettes/BTYD-walkthrough.pdf
http://www.producao.ufrgs.br/arquivos/disciplinas/495_serv_20090518_10_journal_of_service_research_-_lifetime_value.pdf

SaaS Metrics Links:
http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics-2/
http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics/
https://www.slideshare.net/KellySchwedland/building-the-billion-dollar-saas-unicorn-ceo-guide
Startup Metrics for Pirates
Economics of Customer Businesses: Mauboussin

Tren Griffin on Unit Economics
https://25iq.com/2017/07/15/amazon-prime-and-other-subscription-businesses-how-do-you-value-a-subscriber/
https://25iq.com/2016/12/31/a-half-dozen-ways-to-look-at-the-unit-economics-of-a-business/

These five factors determine the “unit economics” of a business:

a customer acquisition cost (CAC);
an average revenue per user (ARPU);
a gross margin;
a customer lifetime (which is a function of customer retention/churn); and
a discount rate.

amzn-prime

Forecasting:
https://research.fb.com/prophet-forecasting-at-scale/

Selecting Forecasting Methods in Data Science
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M4 competition results:
https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Evangelos_Spiliotis_ISF2018.pdf
https://eng.uber.com/m4-forecasting-competition/
https://eng.uber.com/forecasting-introduction/
https://www.scribd.com/document/382185710/IJF-Published-M4-Paper
https://github.com/carlanetto/M4comp2018
https://github.com/pmontman
https://github.com/M4Competition/M4-methods/blob/dd70af03aa8402fd5714f2be0f1b9fd574923f74/132%20-%20roubinchtein/allforcodef.R
https://github.com/robjhyndman/M4metalearning/blob/master/docs/metalearning_example.md
ttps://robjhyndman.com/papers/Theta.pdf
https://eng.uber.com/omphalos/
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3173287

Past Kaggle (Data Science) Competition Solutions:
–http://ndres.me/kaggle-past-solutions/
–https://www.kaggle.com/sudalairajkumar/winning-solutions-of-kaggle-competitions
–http://www.chioka.in/kaggle-competition-solutions/

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